Posts Tagged ‘US’

The Dangers of the Mob Mentality

Sunday, March 22nd, 2009

We as the people of the United States are at a historic impasse where we can either band together to get through these hard time or fight and create a hostile environment where recovery is more difficult and prolonged.


When viewing an economic crisis over history many economists strictly view the flow of money, whether it is spending, lending or monetary. My view is somewhat more of the psychological viewpoint of the masses. If we strip out the dollars and cents of a crisis what we are left with is the acceptance of a failed endeavor.

We as individuals are able to handle extremely difficult stresses in life by going through stages of acceptance to finally moving on. As pointed out by Gustave Le Bon in The Crowd the individual is typically smarter than the crowd. As an individual we cope much faster with a crisis then the masses. Since this crisis is affecting so many people it makes it harder as an individual to go against the irrational actions of the crowd and move toward the somewhat obvious solution.


So instead of acting out of anger, we need to think as individuals and act rationally. If everyone thinks as an individual rather than part of the mob we would make more progress toward the resolution of this difficult time.

Unfortunately, if history is any indication of the future, people will jump on the bandwagon and the resolution will be prolonged and full of irrational behavior. Interesting that it is not the economic factors that determine the outcome, it is the human action.

Worried about Inflation? What!

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

Are they serious? The US Federal Reserve yesterday took significant action to promote lending and restore growth to the US economy. The Federal Reserve cited the following reason for the dramatic action:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession.

Inflation will be an issue in the USA when it actually starts growing instead of contracting. Read the above statement from the Federal Reserve, does this seem like growth is around the corner? If growth is so close, then why has the Federal Reserve taken made such a bold move? I think that Deflation is the real concern here. Remember that we can stop inflation; Deflation is the real scary one, especially since the Federal Reserve has already thrown the kitchen sink at the problem. It is funny how the stock market always seems to be so ahead of the news without actually thinking about the now. It is true, low rates makes growth easier because of the cheaper cost of money, but to get to the ending you have read the whole book.

Annual inflation rates in the United States from 1666 to 2004

Annual inflation rates in the United States from 1666 to 2004

Killing the World Economies with Money

Thursday, March 19th, 2009
Ben Bernanke US Federal Reserve Chairman

Ben Bernanke US Federal Reserve Chairman

Okay so our beloved fed reserve chairman has come up with a brilliant way of killing the rest of the world economies, at least until they catch up. So what happens when you are the largest consumer in the world and you try your hardest to kill the value of your currency? Well you manage to make the life of countries that live off you harder. I call this protectionism, devaluing your currency in the face of a world recession is a real low blow to those countries that depend on you for your consumption. Now the other side of the coin is that large USA companies will benefit in the short term (a little protectionism), but what happens when those foreign economies you’ve damaged find their recession deepening because of currency exchange. Well large US companies, who receive a significant source of their revenue from overseas, will start to suffer on softening foreign sales.

The actions the Federal Reserve took yesterday are intentioned to expand credit in the United States, but isn’t that what started the problem in the first place. To me it seems like our Government can’t give up the past to move onto the future where we you don’t need a new car every 2 years and 5 LCD televisions per household. We need to focus on letting the market go through the difficult process of price discovery and start saving real money instead of looking at credit as a safety net (i.e. credit cards). The US government should stop trying to fix it and maintain the laws instead of inventing new ones.

Just my opinion.