Posts Tagged ‘main street’

Wall Street Bonuses – Blind leading the Blind

Monday, January 11th, 2010

Main street America is bracing for the all expected news of coming bonuses for Wall Street executives. When main street is suffering with shrinking credit and high unemployment, why should the source of the problem get a bonuses. Well they made a lot of money over the past year, right? Most of these institutions paid off the TARP funds, so why should they not get bonuses?

First let’s look at how those institutions paid off their tarp funds. Goldman Sachs is believed to be at the apex of Wall Street with their proven track record. How did Goldman Sachs pay off their TARP debt so fast? Last year the US government bailed out AIG by giving them a large chunk of tax payer money. Most of those funds given to AIG passed directly through to institutions that they owed due to bad bets with credit default swaps. Goldman Sachs was the top recipient of $12.9 billion of those tax payer dollars. Goldman Sachs owed TARP $10 billion. Shouldn’t the house be responsible for the bets they take?

They made a lot of money, right? The question is at whose expense. These institutions make a good share of their profits off the consumer. Since credit card rates have gone up and the banks cost of money gone down (fed funds rate), it would seem some of the TARP funds where paid back by the same tax payer who bailed them out.

Who should decide whether these institutions give their executives bonuses? I personally believe that the shareholders should be making the decision, since they are the ones who own the company. Let’s take a look at Goldman Sachs’s top 10 institutional shareholders as of September 30th, 2009 considering 76% of Goldman Sachs is owned by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners.

4.62% AXA – They provide insurance and asset management services through their subsidiaries around the world.
4.41% Barclay Group – They provide financial services to United States and Europe.
3.72% State Street Corporation – Provides financial services around the world.
3.40% Wellington Management Company – Institutional investment managers.
3.29% Vanguard Group – Provides mutual funds and other financial services.
3.20% FMR LLC – Otherwise known as Fidelity Investments is one of the largest mutual fund providers in the world.
2.14% Price (T. Rowe) Associates – Large mutual fund provider.
2.07% Marsico Capital Management – Financial services and mutual fund provider.
1.76% Janus Capital Management –Asset management and mutual fund provider.
1.70% J.P. Morgan and Company – Large financial services provider.

All of the above institutions have one thing in common and that is they are all investment managers. If you hold a mutual fund or ETF (exchange traded fund) that owns Goldman Sachs, do you vote as a shareholder? The answer is no, the fund manager makes the decision. Do you think the fund manager is going to say no to bonuses?

Whether Wall Street deserves the bonuses or not, one thing is for sure they will do what they want since there is no one to stop them.

Support and Resistance – What is really happening?

Thursday, April 30th, 2009

Support and resistance in technical analysis typically refers to a price of stock, commodity, and similar investment tools that becomes a stopping point. The support is the low point of the trading range and the resistance is the top.

What causes a stock or other investment tool to find a support and resistance? Support is the point where buyers exceed sellers. Resistance is the point where sellers exceed buyers. Basically support and resistance is the tug a war between the bulls and bears. Some say that the winner is typically the one who convinces the long term investors to follow them.


Currently the bulls have made a stand at 6500 on the Dow Industrial and the bears have made theirs at about 8000. Over the past two months there have been several reports citing the lack of the individual investor participation. Consumer confidence released Tuesday April 28th, 2009 has shown that Main Street is starting to feel more confident about the future, but their current situation is rather unchanged.

So it would appear we are at a tipping point. I would assume if Main Street starts to see a more measurable improvement in their current financial situation the bulls could win the war. If Main Street current financial situation either stagnates or gets worse than the bears would probably win. So what if the bulls or the bears win this one, who will win the next one?

Support and resistance is all about expectations. If you are a bull and expectation are exceeded, then the market will move your way. If you are a Bear and expectation are missed, then the market will probably move in your direction. High expectations are negative for bulls, since they are harder to exceed. Low expectations are negative for Bears, since they are harder to miss. What are you expectations?

Consumer Confidence – Propaganda or Main Street Gauge?

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

Every month the Conference Board releases the results of a poll conducted by TNS of 5000 US Households. This poll is meant to capture the mood of the average US household during the month in question and apply a number to it. If the mood of US households is improving then supposedly this is a sign of improved consumer spending and better conditions on Main Street.

The questions asked during this poll focus on both present conditions and future outlook. This sampling of US households is asked to give their current individual condition and forecast the US economy as it relates to them.


The most recent poll released on April 28, 2009 showed an increase in US Consumer Confidence from 26.0 to 39.2. In this most recent poll the Present Situation Index increased slightly from 21.9 to 23.7. The Expectations Index rose dramatically from 30.2 to 49.5. From this poll it clearly shows currently that expectations outweigh existing conditions. This sampling of US Households has increased its optimism for the future.

Over the past two months Washington and Wall Street have increased their confidence dramatically as well. Washington has made comments hinting that we have possibly seen the worst and Wall Street has rallied to lofty levels in record time.

Both Washington and Wall Street have made extra efforts to remain optimistic. Washington now takes great care in releasing information in not to disrupt the Markets too much. Wall Street seems to have teamed up to shift their majority view from bearish to bullish. In my opinion it also appears that the financial press seems to praise the bulls and shun the bears.

Propaganda is the dissemination of information that is meant to influence the opinions or behaviors of people. Wall Street and Washing are focusing on the glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel. The light could be real or it could be a train coming, but we are still for the most part in the dark.

Wall Street and Washington have something to gain by keeping the US household positive. Wall Street wants US Households to invest their hard earned money into the market so they can make money. Washington wants US households to feel they are succeeding in solving to problems so they can keep “political will” on their side and succeed in their political agenda.

Is Consumer Confidence a gauge of Main Street finances or a measure of success in political and corporate propaganda?