Posts Tagged ‘bank stress test’

Too Big to Fail – A Concept that has gone into Bankruptcy

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009

Bankruptcy is a legally declared inability or impairment of ability of an individual or organization to pay its creditors. Since the beginning of the current financial crisis thousands of businesses and individuals have filed bankruptcy in America. Most of America has no protection from bankruptcy. The US government has invented a term “too big to fail” which seems to have immunized the nation’s largest businesses from bankruptcy.

Companies that have been labeled “too big to fail” directly and indirectly (suppliers) employ millions of people. Over the past year the Government contributed billions of US tax payer money to these behemoth companies to prevent them from meeting a self inflicted fate.

The recent optimism over banks seems somewhat over exaggerated considering we have already given hundreds of billions of dollars to these banks and they need 75 billion more. The treasury secretary has been quoted that he believes the banks can “earn their way out” of this crisis. Tax payer allowed these once doomed banks to raise their profit margins so they can “earn their way out” of the hole they dug themselves into (i.e. questionable credit card practices that has taken recent political stage).

The US auto industry has been dying slowly for decades. Two out of the three US auto manufacturers were pulled from the thaws bankruptcy late last year. Now one of them has already entered bankruptcy and the other is all but guaranteed to file. So this intervention by the US government just ended up being a waste of taxpayer money.

Bankruptcy is a clear case that capitalism is successful. It is Business’s form of natural selection. A business goes bankrupt when supply exceeds demand and or new innovation trumps the old. Bankruptcy makes room for new businesses that are better suited for the times. Since bankruptcy is such an integral part of capitalism and the evolution of business, what happens when you manipulate natural selection?

Bank Stress Test – Possible Train Wreck?

Friday, May 8th, 2009

File:Train wreck at Montparnasse 1895.jpgSince the announcement of the Bank Stress Test the US Government has been promising a level of transparency that was suppose to shed light on the real condition of the largest banks in the USA. The official results were announced at 5:00 PM EST but the actual results had been leaked to the press over that past two weeks.

With the test scores in, Wall Street seems unsurprised by the results. The US Government seems to have spent more effort on releasing the information so as not to disrupt the markets, than realistically testing the banks. This test was supposed to see if banks could handle another future financial earthquake. Instead it seems to have tested if they could handle what may be a best case scenario.

The US government used both a worst case scenario and a more “probable case” to test the possible financial needs of Americas 19 largest banks. The “probable case” unemployment for this year has already been met. The Federal Reserve Chairman during his last testimony to congress stressed the increasingly concerning commercial real estate industry, but the test puts little weight to it. The Bank Stress test seemed to be more political propaganda to spur optimism than a true test of structural integrity.

Consumer credit was released today showing consumers paid down debt $11.1 billion in April instead of the forecasted reduction of $4.2 billion. The consumer still appears to be concerned about debt reduction than expansion. The backbone of the US governments recovery plan is to expand lending and spur consumer spending.

United States Railroad freight traffic was down 23 percent in April and 18.2% year to date. Railroads move raw goods around America. The Association of American Railroads Senior Vice President John T. Gray was quoted in a released statement “Unfortunately, it’s hard to find much in rail traffic data in April to support the idea that the economy is starting to see ‘green shoots’ … it may still just be weeds”. How can manufacturing be recovering without the raw goods to make products?

Bank Stress Test – At Least 1 then, now 10 need Funds?

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

On Friday April 24th, 2009 the US Government released the parameters of their imposed stress test on the 19 largest banks in the USA. This release acknowledged that at least one of the banks involved in the test needed additional capital. On Tuesday May 5th 2009, information has leaked out that possibly 10 of the 19 banks will need additional funds.

The stress test results are scheduled to be released on Thursday May 7th, 2009. Since the release of the parameters on April 24th, information has been suspiciously disseminated seemly to soften the blow of the tests findings. So far from the information released, it appears over 50% of 19 largest banks in the USA need more money.


With still a couple days until the results are released, one has to consider if there will be more than 10. With the diminished political will towards Wall Street the obvious first step towards these banks raising the necessary capital will be to convert the US governments preferred shares (from TARP funds they received) to common equity. This conversion, which would alleviate debt from their balance sheets, would essentially put these banks one step towards nationalization.

Over two months ago the US Markets plunged to new lows on fears on banks being nationalized. Now it appears that the US government is inches from nationalization of some of the largest banks in the USA. If over 50% of the largest banks need money, what about the mid and small sized banks? Where will the funds come from?