In the early 1980’s mortgage rates where above 14% and other debt carried an even higher rates of interest. During the early 1980’s, banks required most home buyers to put down 20% and have spotless credit. For example if a buyer purchased a home for $125,000 he or she would more than likely need to put $25,000 down (20%) and the monthly principle and interest payment at 14% would be $1184.87.
Over the past 25 plus years, rates on mortgages and most debt have fallen considerably. The cause of this decrease in rates is mostly attributed to the Federal Reserve’s action of lowering rates and raising rates to control inflation in the US economy. Clearly the Federal Reserve has viewed the past 2 plus decades as having relatively low inflation thereby lowing more than raising rates (Fed Funds Rate).
Lowering rates more than raising them creates cheaper costs of borrowing thereby making room for more. This cheap money also creates more of a demand for credit. This excessive credit demand led to fierce competition among banks. Competition is definitely a good thing until demand starts to wane. As soon as the credit demand let up this led to banks acting as their own Federal Reserves by creating products that artificially lowered the cost of lending thereby stimulating borrowing.
Most home buyers view a home purchase not by the sales price, but by the down payment and monthly obligation. Now let’s look at the buyer from the early 1980’s with he or she’s $25,000 to put down and the ability to afford $1184.87 monthly payment. This buyer today could afford a $225,000 home with $25,000 down with $1183.08 monthly principle and interest payment with an interest rate of 5.875% and relaxed down payment restrictions. Identical down payments and same monthly, but twice the debt, was the growth in value or debt?
This rather rapid reduction in the cost of money over the past two plus decades has led to an equal increase in the price of cars, education, utilities, etc. Inflation seems to have been masked in credit. The credit markets in the US and around the world nearly collapsed because they had “maxed out their credit”. With the rapid expansion of debt at the end of the road with the Fed Funds rate at 0 to .25% target and lending rates increasing because of diminishing credit quality (except for mortgages because the Federal Reserve is supporting the rates), what’s next? Deflation?
Over the past few weeks Republican Congressman Ron Paul out of Texas has been making a noticeable push to get more transparency out of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve members and its Chairman (Ben Bernanke) have been verbally opposed to the measures that the Congressman is attempting to have enacted. The proposal Congressman Ron Paul is pushing for would allow for an independent audit to be called for following any decisions on monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
The question really is not whether one is coming but would they tell us if it were? In the movies when an asteroid is headed towards Earth, the government decides to keep the impending doom from its citizens to protect them from the horrible truth. Then typically about 3 days from impact, the secret of the approaching fate is revealed along with a plan to save the day. Is it possible that the US government is sugar coating the truth to protect us, shelter us?