The theory behind the Expectations Indicator is that it is easier to exceed low expectations than high ones. For more information on the Expectations Indicator click here.
| Expectations Indicator for Week of May 10th, 2009 | ||
| Sector / Index | 5/6/2009 | 5/10/2009 |
| Energy | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| Materials | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| Utilities | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| Healthcare | Low Expectations | Neutral Expectations |
| Industrial | Neutral Expectations | Low Expectations |
| Consumer Goods | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| Technology | High Expectations | Neutral Expectations |
| Financials | Low Expectations | Neutral Expectations |
| Consumer Services | High Expectations | High Expectations |
| Telecommunications | High Expectations | High Expectations |
| Real Estate | High Expectations | Neutral Expectations |
| Average Total Market | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| S&P 500 | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| Nasdaq 100 | High Expectations | High Expectations |
| Dow 30 Industrials | Low Expectations | Low Expectations |
| High Expectations | ||
| Low Expectations | ||
| Neutral Expectations | ||
In this update of the Expectations indicator the largest moves in expectations occurred in Technology going from high to neutral expectations and Consumer Services which has stayed at high expectations, but in the actual data increased rather significantly.
Healthcare has gone from low to neutral expectations maybe showing a pause. Industrial has moved from neutral to low expectations. Real Estate has moved from high to neutral expectations. From the data, it looks like the market has relatively high expectations for the retail sales report due Wednesday.
From the Expectations Indicator report it looks like the Dow 30 and S&P 500 will still look to move higher on the shoulders of basic materials, industrials, utilities and energy. The market may show weakness in the overly speculated sectors (over the past few months) in preparation for the retail sales numbers.
Corrections: On the May 6th, 2009 Expectation Indicator update had two errors due to poor data entry. Real Estate was should have been high rather than neutral expectations, financials should have been low rather than high expectations and lastly the overall market average was low not neutral expectations. Remember this is a new indicator and errors can happen. It is still in the concept stage and the process of gathering the data is new.
Since the Expectations Indicator concept is new, only time will prove this it useful or useless. This indicator will continue to be released until proven not useful. The indicator is for information purposes only and is not meant to constitute any type of financial advice. We also do not guarantee the accuracy of the above information and at any point may alter, change the process of producing it and or discontinue it.
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