Every month the Conference Board releases the results of a poll conducted by TNS of 5000 US Households. This poll is meant to capture the mood of the average US household during the month in question and apply a number to it. If the mood of US households is improving then supposedly this is a sign of improved consumer spending and better conditions on Main Street.
The questions asked during this poll focus on both present conditions and future outlook. This sampling of US households is asked to give their current individual condition and forecast the US economy as it relates to them.
The most recent poll released on April 28, 2009 showed an increase in US Consumer Confidence from 26.0 to 39.2. In this most recent poll the Present Situation Index increased slightly from 21.9 to 23.7. The Expectations Index rose dramatically from 30.2 to 49.5. From this poll it clearly shows currently that expectations outweigh existing conditions. This sampling of US Households has increased its optimism for the future.
Over the past two months Washington and Wall Street have increased their confidence dramatically as well. Washington has made comments hinting that we have possibly seen the worst and Wall Street has rallied to lofty levels in record time.
Both Washington and Wall Street have made extra efforts to remain optimistic. Washington now takes great care in releasing information in not to disrupt the Markets too much. Wall Street seems to have teamed up to shift their majority view from bearish to bullish. In my opinion it also appears that the financial press seems to praise the bulls and shun the bears.
Propaganda is the dissemination of information that is meant to influence the opinions or behaviors of people. Wall Street and Washing are focusing on the glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel. The light could be real or it could be a train coming, but we are still for the most part in the dark.
Wall Street and Washington have something to gain by keeping the US household positive. Wall Street wants US Households to invest their hard earned money into the market so they can make money. Washington wants US households to feel they are succeeding in solving to problems so they can keep “political will” on their side and succeed in their political agenda.
Is Consumer Confidence a gauge of Main Street finances or a measure of success in political and corporate propaganda?
Tags: cenference board, consumer confidence, main street, wall street, washington
